Can a Tristan Take a Dramiel?

"Can ship X take ship Y?"

I get this question a lot in Eve. Someone wants to fly a Rifter, just as an example, so what ships should he attack in confidence? The answer is somewhere between all of them, and none of them.

It could be any ship. From the lowest Frigate to the biggest Battleship, there is no right answer. In fact, it all just kinda depends now don't it?

But let's take a step back and start from the beginning. A Tristan is a T1 Frigate that, when operated in the right hands, can do this to a Dramiel. (Despite the fact that the Dram pilot apparently decided fighting without ammo would be a good idea.) And in the next minute lose a fight to a Kestrel. ( Apologies to my good friend Joffy for using his fights as examples, but they did just happen and I don't think he'll mind.)

On paper, in a perfect world, a Dramiel should beat a Tristan. And the same Tristan should win against a rocket Kestrel. Generally speaking. Most of the time. But sadly, Eve is not a perfect world. And we don't fight on paper. We fight in space with its gazillion layers of complex variables that screw even the best laid plans.

There just ain't no figuring it.

In the absence of a "win" button then, what can the PvPer do? Luckily the answer is rather simple. While it is indeed true that there are no "right" answers, there are actually probabilities of success. Variables influence probability and increasing the variables on your side, weigh the outcome in your favor. Variables increased on the side of your enemy? Decrease your probability.

Let's take the first of those. A straight up Tristan Vs. Dramiel duel? Let's be generous and award the fight a 2-10, or 20%, chance of success on the part of the Tristan. In other words, not bloody likely. A few variables such as age, experience, fit, location and whatnot might increase that probability. The Dramiel was in a Large Plex and the Tristan landed right on top of him. That might, combined with the other variables, increase the odds to maybe 45%. Still not great, but better than 20%. Not loading ammo? Suddenly that increases the odds to 87%. Not much higher because the Dram is dual-prop and had a chance to leave the fight.

Now, the tricky bit. You are not going to be aware of some important variables BEFORE you engage. You can't ring the enemy up and ask questions before the fight. Things don't work like that. So kudos to Joffy for engaging when the best he could've hoped for was maybe a 45% chance of victory, or significantly less if someone had loaded ammo.

And yeah, of course I'm totally making these numbers up. Who knows what the real percentages are?  ( Someone might, I mean they are out there to be examined, I'm just not going to do it. Statistical analysis is not my thing, but I would be curious to read such a report. )

The thing is, low percentage/probability fights have the highest reward. You could fly around in a T1 Frigate exploding rookie ships all day, but where would that get you? You'd never have the satisfaction of taking down a Pirate Frig in your Tristan. Or solo'ing a Megathron in a Rifter. Or exploding a Tengu with a Comet.

GIven the right set of circumstances any combat ship in Eve can win versus any other combat ship in Eve. Depending on the variables involved, the odds might not be in your favor, but then again they might. And you just don't know it yet.

That's why the best PvPers don't ask what ships the Rifter can fight. They already know the answer, given the right circumstances, is all of them.

The trick, as always, is stacking the deck in your favor.



9 comments:

  1. I know what you mean bro. I wasted an AC Thrasher last night with my rocket kestrel. Wasn't really expecting the win, but was confident I'd have enough time to get out if it didn't go my way. Fortunately for me, he forgot to pack barrage. That capped off a pretty profitable night scoring a nice solo kill, 60k FW LP, and about 12m in drops. Love winning the fights I shouldn't, but you never really know unless you try.

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    1. I guess ultimately that is the message I try to preach, try. You can't succeed unless you try, fail, and keep trying. Learn from your mistakes, sure. Try harder, ok. But the heart of it is undocking and making things happen. Only by being in the midst of it can you find the good fights, the solo ratting Megathron with T1 drones.

      Undock and Do.

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  2. "The thing is, low percentage/probability fights have the highest reward."

    ^^ This.

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  3. I tend to engage any and all with some notable exceptions. I really do not want to take the Hookbill of a noted Hookbill pilot on in my Slasher. I will run some other times, if just to set up better for the fight I might get.

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    1. Well certainly tactical advantage is one of the many variables, it also happens to be one you can actually control. Dashing headlong into every fight isn't smart either. Doing everything you can to win however? Now that is smart.

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  4. What I find important is trying to figure out the other pilot's fit and skill/experience before deciding on the fight. If I know that the pilot is new, I increase my expectations. If I check kill boards and see that they often fly a fit that counters what I am flying, I avoid a fight. Of course this is always the advantage of less expensive ships. I am willing to engage any dramiel with my standard T2 fit tristan, but not with my T2 rigged, deadspace fit long point hanger ornament tristan.

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  5. /quote
    But sadly, Eve is not a perfect world.
    /endQuote

    your joking right?

    The best thing about Eve is it's lack of perfection. Why would you want to play a game that was perfect? and consequently boring!

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    1. Wow, talk about taking something out of context. You just wrote the dictionary entry for it.

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  6. A lot of people think too much before engaging.

    I just overload everything till my ears bleed and get stuck in:)

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